Benchmark Almanac

CausalVQA

Qwen2.5-VL-7B 49% leads since June 2025
Cosmos3-Nano 70% leads since May 2026
Only in system cards

Models answer questions about real egocentric videos that probe physical cause and effect, in counterfactual, hypothetical, anticipation, planning and descriptive types.

Released with V-JEPA 2. Videos need an Ego4D license. The leaderboard scores a held-out split of 793 question pairs with private answers.

Made by
Meta FAIR
Released
June 2025
Kind
Physical prediction
Level
Everyday
Scored
Checked automatically
Answers
Multiple choice
Tasks
Public, plus a private test set
Last in a system card
May 2026
Last model added
May 2026
Scores refreshed
November 12th, 2026
2
Models scored in lab cards
2
System cards report it, from 1 lab

Cosmos3-Nano leads with 70%

Best score per model as labs report them in their own cards. Labs pick their own settings, so these compare less cleanly than independent runs.

Qwen2.5-VL-7B leads with 49% across all independent runs

Best score per model across the official leaderboard, Epoch AI’s own runs and any board Epoch AI copied. Each bar and row names its source.

Cosmos3-Nano leads with 70%, claims included

Best score per model from every source, including labs’ own numbers and claims Epoch AI collected from reports and papers. Labs pick their own settings, so a claim can beat an independent run of the same model.

  1. 1 Cosmos3-Nano 70%
  2. 2 Cosmos3-Edge 37%

Source: Labs’ model cards

#ModelScoreSettingDateSource
1 Cosmos3-Nano 70% May 2026 Lab model card
2 Cosmos3-Edge 37% May 2026 Lab model card
#ModelScoreSettingDateSource
1 Qwen2.5-VL-7B 49% Published baseline; vision ViT; LLM Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct Jan 2025 Official leaderboard
2 InternVL2.5-8B 47.5% Published baseline; vision InternViT-300M; LLM InternLM2.5-7B-Chat Dec 2024 Official leaderboard
3 LLaVA-OneVision 7B 45.3% Published baseline; vision SigLIP; LLM Qwen2-7B Aug 2024 Official leaderboard
4 V-JEPA 2 44.9% Published baseline; vision VJEPA 2; LLM Llama3.1 8B Jun 2025 Official leaderboard
#ModelScoreSettingDateSource
1 Cosmos3-Nano 70% May 2026 Lab model card
2 Qwen2.5-VL-7B 49% Published baseline; vision ViT; LLM Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct Jan 2025 Official leaderboard
3 InternVL2.5-8B 47.5% Published baseline; vision InternViT-300M; LLM InternLM2.5-7B-Chat Dec 2024 Official leaderboard
4 LLaVA-OneVision 7B 45.3% Published baseline; vision SigLIP; LLM Qwen2-7B Aug 2024 Official leaderboard
5 V-JEPA 2 44.9% Published baseline; vision VJEPA 2; LLM Llama3.1 8B Jun 2025 Official leaderboard
6 Cosmos3-Edge 37% May 2026 Lab model card

The benchmark's own leaderboard has 7 entries, 4 of them models we track. Switch the scores above to rank them together.

Number one over time Number one over time 2 models have held number one with claims included since its release in June 2025

Lab claims count from the day the card came out, independent runs from the model’s release.

Qwen
Own leaderboard Not tested since Jun 2025

Source: Official CausalVQA leaderboard

Scores over time

All the scores we have, one dot each, so a model tested at several settings appears more than once.

On the benchmark’s own leaderboard Reported by the lab in its model card Best so far
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2025 2026 Near the ceiling (85%) Cosmos3-Nano Qwen2.5-VL-7B LLaVA-OneVision 7B 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2025 2026 Near the ceiling (85%) Cosmos3-Nano Qwen2.5-VL-7B

Sources: Official CausalVQA leaderboard and labs’ model cards

Labs report it only in system cards

We read the headline results of 522 launch posts from 52 labs, and none of them list this benchmark. Some system cards do, below.

2 system cards report it, from 1 lab

Besides launch posts, we read the system cards, model cards and technical reports labs publish with a release. They report far more, including safety and frontier-risk tests.

DateDocumentScoreAs the document writes itSection
May 31, 2026 Cosmos3-Nano technical report 70 CausalVQA, Cosmos3-Nano 8B column, Table 10 Capabilities
May 31, 2026 Cosmos3-Edge technical report 37 CausalVQA, Cosmos3-Edge 2B column, Table 10 Capabilities

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